Democrats are back in control of the Michigan House and full state government after their candidates in two special elections won big on Tuesday night.
Since everyone is taking about what is happening Nebraska in terms of those 3 electoral votes it's possible in a decade or so that a dem carries NE-1 in a presidential election. When it eventually happens it would be interesting to see how peope react. Oddly enough if NE-2 continues to swing along with NE-1 it's very possible that Nebraska turns into a swing state or a likely R state accounting for NE-3 still voting for the GOP by 50%+.
Both NE and KS (and I guess IA) have an ungodly red Western district that keeps the state firmly red even though their Eastern metros would make them more competitive. Both of them are on a trajectory to be theoretically competitive in another 2 presidential cycles, which are probably the Democrats' best hope for new states to put into play other than Alaska and North Carolina.
The process by which sources are approved or excluded appears opaque, leading to complaints that the process is capricious and biased. Can the process for whitelist decisioning be made more transparent?
Um, the Wisconsin primary kinda seems terrible for Biden? He only won the state by 20k votes and the “Uninstructed” vote got 46k votes (and there’s still a few more to be counted). EDIT: These results aren’t exactly good for Trump either but in a state as close as Wisconsin, every vote matters exponentially.
The protest vote against Trump is even more substantial. There is absolutely no reason to vote for a different candidate at this point other than to send a message to Trump that a Republican voter might flip. It’s particularly bad for Trump because the protest vote is strongest with college educated suburbanites which the GOP has been hemorrhaging. The GOP absolutely needs to hold their margins in the MKE collar counties and he had large defections there.
Just to add on that, the WOW is where Republicans make up most of their vote margin after getting shellacked in Milwaukee and Dane Counties. It's why any movement away from the Republicans in those counties (plus also places like Green Bay and Racine and Kenosha counties) is incredibly problematic for them. There aren't enough votes in the rest of the state to make those margins up.
They will probably pick up some more votes as the Driftless drifts away from Ds, but further shifts in WOW alone would erase that, and a lot of the state's in-migration is to places like Dane, which keeps getting bluer.
And now Netanyahu's flailing self-preservation has killed foreign aid workers from a highly regarded organization. There is no excuse, even if intel indicated smuggling of weapons or fighters. That was not the way to handle it, there is no indication that a threat was imminent to warrant that response. Significant changes to the Israeli elected and military leadership need to happen. Up until this point "this is what happens in war" was largely a sad truth.
What's outrageous is that, even in the best case scenario, they still (1) knew it was an aid truck and (2) were willing to see 7 civilian casualties to take out a single suspected gunman. Israel was only just beginning to partially rehabilitate its image with these strikes by doing highly precise and targeted assassinations of high value targets with virtually no collateral damage, and something like this happens which will rightfully raise a lot of questions about how precise and justifiable their targeting is, because the tradeoff in their own best case scenario seems absolutely unjustifiable.
Right, and I assume that the recent raid on Al Shifa might at least be related to this to prepare. The Israeli sources that have made statements around this Rafah discourse all say that we'd see the signs of an invasion well in advance since they'd get the civilians out. At any rate, I have to imagine it's unlikely that it happens before Ramadan is over anyways.
The Biden campaign immediately released a memo saying that Florida was in play, in part because of this amendment. There's also an amendment to legalize recreational marijuana and, to make it extra important to turn out, Florida amendments need to hit 60% to pass. Winning the state seems a bit remote still, but these are going to help with turnout and possibly put some Congressional races, including the senate one where Rick Scott is anti-abortion and anti-weed, in the competitive column where Democrats desperately need some more seats to put into play.
The double standard on this has not been more stark this year. If Biden was the one selling Bibles with secular text in them and profiting off a license to them during holy week and then comparing his plight to crucifixion on social media, there would be actual pitchforks out to have him killed. He didn't do any of that and he's an observant Catholic, so instead they have to get mad at him that Trans Day of Visibility coincidentally falls on Easter Sunday instead.
The litmus test for whether to care about an issue isn't whether it's worse than the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Over 300 trans people were killed last year, their access to gender affirming care is under attack across the country, and they face discrimination for just being who they are. Not caring about trans rights will not make the situation in Gaza any better, but a lot of marginalized people could get hurt or die if there isn't a voice to the issues they face in their community.
It's honestly mind boggling to me that Trump was selling Bibles during holy week and tweeting about "the crucifixion of Donald Trump" and these folks were all silent about it.
JESUS was accepting of all. I am not Jesus, nor am I even close. LGBTQ is anti Christian. Therefore, I am not ok with LGBTQ. It should be said, I couldn’t care less about them, they can do whatever they want. But shoving it in my face, I will voice my own opinions.
This election really is an odd duck to me. The fundamentals of an economy which, despite inflation, is still seeing growth, including strong real wage growth for middle and working classes and low unemployment, a list of legislative accomplishments in 4 years that most presidents can only hope to do in 8, and the huge fundraising advantage that Biden has over Trump that will probably get worse as Trump pays off his legal bills is at complete odds with the polls that seem to keep showing a generational racial realignment with Trump getting as much as 30% of the Black vote for the first time for a Republican in over 60 years and winning the youth vote after getting crushed with them in 2020. Maybe the polls are right, but what are the signs and evidence that Trump is suddenly so popular with these groups? Meanwhile, the Haley vote in the primaries flashed clear warning signs that Trump was continuing to hemorrhage middle class Romney Republicans in the suburbs and there was a large protest vote to him even in closed primaries. I guess we'll see how this pans out in the end, but the polling this year is just bizarre and at odds with the fundamentals.
It could be why there hasn't been a permanent Labor Secretary yet, with Julie Su only acting. He will probably also want Vermont to elect a Democratic Governor, and for Becca Balint to get some experience before she makes the jump to Senator since she was only elected in 2022. For such a small state, the bench is oddly sparse for Democrats since the state keeps electing Republican Governors, though Vermont being so blue is also comparatively recent (Patrick Leahy, the former senior Senator from the state, was the only Democrat ever elected from Vermont to the Senate until Peter Welch replaced him, since Sanders runs as an Independent).
The polls do seem to all have shifted towards Biden in the past two weeks. This is not necessarily saying that Biden is winning new voters (in fact, it's more likely that people who would've ended up voting for him are now saying so in polls), but January does seem to be effectively the lowest point for his polls so far this cycle. Some of the recent polls still suffer from the crosstab issue though. The samples are small, but Trump winning young voters by 3 in the Texas poll and also getting 30% of Black voters is just hard to believe.
The state has closed primaries and a lot of Republican voters are still registered as Democrats. The state still has a Democratic registration advantage even though Southern white Democrats are basically no longer an actual significant Democratic voting bloc. Obama only got 76% here in 2012, so Biden's had a bit of an improvement.
The Cook County state's attorney race has moderate Eileen O'Neill Burke leading Clayton Harris III by just under 10K votes and by a 51-49 margin, but Cook County mail ballots ordinarily sweep pretty heavily left, which is what happened in the mayoral primary in 2023, when Paul Vallas was only down 16K on election night to Brandon Johnson but ended up losing by 26K when mail ballots were counted.
But Vallas v. Johnson was just in the city. County also will include suburban votes, which will be less progressive-leaning (Burke is currently winning non-Chicago Cook by 8).
Yeah, I have nothing to compare the non-suburban part of Cook against. Burke's probably a slight favorite but there's still like 110K outstanding mail IIRC.
It's about the alumni network a school has, which is probably going to be the strongest in the market that it's situated in. If you look at Fordham, 311 people in the class of 2022 were employed in NY, 21 in NJ, and the third largest market was DC, with 8.
You can also consider some legalesque kind of jobs where a JD is preferred but not required. There are also people who find they actually enjoy the work but not law school and vice versa, so it might not be as bad as you feel it will be.
I vote for Charles Edward Merriam / Edward J. Meeman
I vote for Philip F. La Follette/Michael A. Musmanno (Farmer-Labor)
Democrats are back in control of the Michigan House and full state government after their candidates in two special elections won big on Tuesday night.
Overperformed Biden by 2 and 3 points in these. The Detroit part of one of the districts voted 95-4 for the Democrat.
I vote James T. Farrell
I vote Eliot Ness
I vote for Philip F. LaFollette.
I vote for federalists
I vote Emanuel Celler
Since everyone is taking about what is happening Nebraska in terms of those 3 electoral votes it's possible in a decade or so that a dem carries NE-1 in a presidential election. When it eventually happens it would be interesting to see how peope react. Oddly enough if NE-2 continues to swing along with NE-1 it's very possible that Nebraska turns into a swing state or a likely R state accounting for NE-3 still voting for the GOP by 50%+.
Both NE and KS (and I guess IA) have an ungodly red Western district that keeps the state firmly red even though their Eastern metros would make them more competitive. Both of them are on a trajectory to be theoretically competitive in another 2 presidential cycles, which are probably the Democrats' best hope for new states to put into play other than Alaska and North Carolina.
Hi I have two suggestions that I think would overall improve the subreddit:
We have talked about this for at least several years now :] The issues that have come up which are a bit of a roadblock to implementation are
The process by which sources are approved or excluded appears opaque, leading to complaints that the process is capricious and biased. Can the process for whitelist decisioning be made more transparent?
The approved domains list criteria can be found in the sidebar here:
Um, the Wisconsin primary kinda seems terrible for Biden? He only won the state by 20k votes and the “Uninstructed” vote got 46k votes (and there’s still a few more to be counted). EDIT: These results aren’t exactly good for Trump either but in a state as close as Wisconsin, every vote matters exponentially.
The protest vote against Trump is even more substantial. There is absolutely no reason to vote for a different candidate at this point other than to send a message to Trump that a Republican voter might flip. It’s particularly bad for Trump because the protest vote is strongest with college educated suburbanites which the GOP has been hemorrhaging. The GOP absolutely needs to hold their margins in the MKE collar counties and he had large defections there.
Just to add on that, the WOW is where Republicans make up most of their vote margin after getting shellacked in Milwaukee and Dane Counties. It's why any movement away from the Republicans in those counties (plus also places like Green Bay and Racine and Kenosha counties) is incredibly problematic for them. There aren't enough votes in the rest of the state to make those margins up.
They will probably pick up some more votes as the Driftless drifts away from Ds, but further shifts in WOW alone would erase that, and a lot of the state's in-migration is to places like Dane, which keeps getting bluer.
And now Netanyahu's flailing self-preservation has killed foreign aid workers from a highly regarded organization. There is no excuse, even if intel indicated smuggling of weapons or fighters. That was not the way to handle it, there is no indication that a threat was imminent to warrant that response. Significant changes to the Israeli elected and military leadership need to happen. Up until this point "this is what happens in war" was largely a sad truth.
What's outrageous is that, even in the best case scenario, they still (1) knew it was an aid truck and (2) were willing to see 7 civilian casualties to take out a single suspected gunman. Israel was only just beginning to partially rehabilitate its image with these strikes by doing highly precise and targeted assassinations of high value targets with virtually no collateral damage, and something like this happens which will rightfully raise a lot of questions about how precise and justifiable their targeting is, because the tradeoff in their own best case scenario seems absolutely unjustifiable.
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Right, and I assume that the recent raid on Al Shifa might at least be related to this to prepare. The Israeli sources that have made statements around this Rafah discourse all say that we'd see the signs of an invasion well in advance since they'd get the civilians out. At any rate, I have to imagine it's unlikely that it happens before Ramadan is over anyways.
The Biden campaign immediately released a memo saying that Florida was in play, in part because of this amendment. There's also an amendment to legalize recreational marijuana and, to make it extra important to turn out, Florida amendments need to hit 60% to pass. Winning the state seems a bit remote still, but these are going to help with turnout and possibly put some Congressional races, including the senate one where Rick Scott is anti-abortion and anti-weed, in the competitive column where Democrats desperately need some more seats to put into play.
Geesh, where are the personal attacks, the pleas for $$$, the demented incoherent rambling? Oh yeah, that's happening over on truth social.
The double standard on this has not been more stark this year. If Biden was the one selling Bibles with secular text in them and profiting off a license to them during holy week and then comparing his plight to crucifixion on social media, there would be actual pitchforks out to have him killed. He didn't do any of that and he's an observant Catholic, so instead they have to get mad at him that Trans Day of Visibility coincidentally falls on Easter Sunday instead.
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The litmus test for whether to care about an issue isn't whether it's worse than the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Over 300 trans people were killed last year, their access to gender affirming care is under attack across the country, and they face discrimination for just being who they are. Not caring about trans rights will not make the situation in Gaza any better, but a lot of marginalized people could get hurt or die if there isn't a voice to the issues they face in their community.
just watched the talking heads on the sunday morning political pony shows
It's honestly mind boggling to me that Trump was selling Bibles during holy week and tweeting about "the crucifixion of Donald Trump" and these folks were all silent about it.
Trump for sure doesn’t endorse the bible? He is against most things in it.
He's for this Bible though, since he licensed some of the things he said to the Bible-maker and presumably earns a royalty off the sales.
JESUS was accepting of all. I am not Jesus, nor am I even close. LGBTQ is anti Christian. Therefore, I am not ok with LGBTQ. It should be said, I couldn’t care less about them, they can do whatever they want. But shoving it in my face, I will voice my own opinions.
Isn't being Christ-like one of the fundamental tenets of Christianity?
This election really is an odd duck to me. The fundamentals of an economy which, despite inflation, is still seeing growth, including strong real wage growth for middle and working classes and low unemployment, a list of legislative accomplishments in 4 years that most presidents can only hope to do in 8, and the huge fundraising advantage that Biden has over Trump that will probably get worse as Trump pays off his legal bills is at complete odds with the polls that seem to keep showing a generational racial realignment with Trump getting as much as 30% of the Black vote for the first time for a Republican in over 60 years and winning the youth vote after getting crushed with them in 2020. Maybe the polls are right, but what are the signs and evidence that Trump is suddenly so popular with these groups? Meanwhile, the Haley vote in the primaries flashed clear warning signs that Trump was continuing to hemorrhage middle class Romney Republicans in the suburbs and there was a large protest vote to him even in closed primaries. I guess we'll see how this pans out in the end, but the polling this year is just bizarre and at odds with the fundamentals.
So... what's Bernie Sanders's move? Is he running for Senate re-election, or not?
It could be why there hasn't been a permanent Labor Secretary yet, with Julie Su only acting. He will probably also want Vermont to elect a Democratic Governor, and for Becca Balint to get some experience before she makes the jump to Senator since she was only elected in 2022. For such a small state, the bench is oddly sparse for Democrats since the state keeps electing Republican Governors, though Vermont being so blue is also comparatively recent (Patrick Leahy, the former senior Senator from the state, was the only Democrat ever elected from Vermont to the Senate until Peter Welch replaced him, since Sanders runs as an Independent).
The polls do seem to all have shifted towards Biden in the past two weeks. This is not necessarily saying that Biden is winning new voters (in fact, it's more likely that people who would've ended up voting for him are now saying so in polls), but January does seem to be effectively the lowest point for his polls so far this cycle. Some of the recent polls still suffer from the crosstab issue though. The samples are small, but Trump winning young voters by 3 in the Texas poll and also getting 30% of Black voters is just hard to believe.
Is this opinion columnist seriously suggesting his vote was up for grabs?
Trump currently has a higher % in the Louisiana primaries than Biden. Why is that?
The state has closed primaries and a lot of Republican voters are still registered as Democrats. The state still has a Democratic registration advantage even though Southern white Democrats are basically no longer an actual significant Democratic voting bloc. Obama only got 76% here in 2012, so Biden's had a bit of an improvement.
I am writing in George Marshall
The Cook County state's attorney race has moderate Eileen O'Neill Burke leading Clayton Harris III by just under 10K votes and by a 51-49 margin, but Cook County mail ballots ordinarily sweep pretty heavily left, which is what happened in the mayoral primary in 2023, when Paul Vallas was only down 16K on election night to Brandon Johnson but ended up losing by 26K when mail ballots were counted.
But Vallas v. Johnson was just in the city. County also will include suburban votes, which will be less progressive-leaning (Burke is currently winning non-Chicago Cook by 8).
Yeah, I have nothing to compare the non-suburban part of Cook against. Burke's probably a slight favorite but there's still like 110K outstanding mail IIRC.
It's about the alumni network a school has, which is probably going to be the strongest in the market that it's situated in. If you look at Fordham, 311 people in the class of 2022 were employed in NY, 21 in NJ, and the third largest market was DC, with 8.
You can also consider some legalesque kind of jobs where a JD is preferred but not required. There are also people who find they actually enjoy the work but not law school and vice versa, so it might not be as bad as you feel it will be.
It is almost certainly a waste of money and time. You'd be better off trying to network into these practices at this point.