Is waiting for a dip the best investment strategy? - I analyzed last 3 decades of stock market returns to determine if it makes sense to time the market! Here are the results!

When you come across a feel-good thing.

Everything is better with a good hug

A glowing commendation for all to see

Listen, get educated, and get involved.

Shows the Silver Award... and that's it.

Gives 100 Reddit Coins and a week of r/lounge access and ad-free browsing.

Thank you stranger. Shows the award.




  1. How did you reconcile the changes to the accounting treatment of earnings over time?

  2. Exactly. I posted this link in a comment below if you haven't seen it:

  3. I with the idea of a refresh happening, it would be interesting to see whether the path Shiller followed to create the first one could be retraced with new data.

  4. Labour costs, training, equipment, maintenance is not at all going up in relation to the increased profits being made by any means. The trajectory of record profits is far out pacing these. Which is exactly my point.

  5. Yes, all of these have increased in cost because of currency devaluation. Profits are also worth less under inflation.

  6. Yet those same economists are stating (many of them) that the costs are rising above what would be justified by the inflation they are facing would call for. For example, Isabella Weber Professor of Econ at UMASS:

  7. Working out the basic math shows that profits should rise more than costs because those profits are less valuable in real terms; material input costs are only one of several components that contribute to pricing (but you've fixated on them alone, I still don't know why). Denying that costs have increased for labour, equipment, etc. is an odd take, considering it's fairly easy to fact-check. What's backward is the direction of the causal relationship that's being presented. It doesn't hold up to scrutiny to very basic questions (Why wasn't this done sooner? How are they coordinating? Why doesn't someone just undercut them and steal their market? etc), is always being delivered vaguely ("companies have bragged..."), and conveniently skips over explaining how exactly actions taken in the future have causal effects on the past.

  8. It's unlikely you'll find a better investment elsewhere considering the discount, and the max 5% contribution should be considered if that's within your budget. Imagine that you contributed at $100/share and you got three, then a 25% drop over those three years to $75 still sees your $300 kept "whole" when you get your free share. Plus, it's likely you're collecting dividends (at least on the three shares). Consider if it's likely that this drops so much without similar market-wide effects. There's a decent amount of "free money" here that's pretty hard to replicate. You can strategically sell older shares to sort out a bit of diversification into other industries, or just pocket the gain.

  9. Isn't 7% likely less than your HELOC and CC rates? I recommend you work out the actually dollar amounts for your different scenarios, and I think your decision will become easier. Message me if you need help with any of these calculations.

  10. Some make money trading, others lose, but in aggregate the market grows because wealth generation is occurring from people creating products or services that have value to at least some consumers. Investors can capture some of that by participating in ownership, but the generating machines are the companies. This same generation occurs with non-public companies (including small businesses, sole proprietorships). Successfully bringing these ideas to market is the mechanism.

  11. The skewed distribution of wealth and power? The mismatch between value and valuation? I mean its meaningful in so many ways.

  12. Don't lots of people throw around significant percentages of their accumulated wealth on things that seem dumb to others?

  13. I'm sorry it feels like you are out to pick a fight and I'm not keen to oblige. I think we understand the words I'm using differently.

  14. You could replace, "It is telling" with "It is important to notice", or, "It is convincing". I get that you're highlighting a particular piece of evidence, but the claim is unclear. For instance, you could say:

  15. Elon is intentionally dragging the Twitter deal into the mud, while knowing that he will have to fulfill the agreement. He is going this to tank Twitter stock so he can buy as much floating shares as he can on the discount. This is just Elon’s plan to drag out the transaction while he buys up floating shares on the cheap.

  16. Special regulations are applied once you own 10+% of shares, and I believe he's over 9% already. You can't just go out and buy a whole company on the open market.

  17. Isn't it so Twitter long ago already made public in a filling that they estimated bots to be below 5% however also stating the number could be higher.

  18. I guess the question then is: why did they decide to settle on 5% for their reporting?

  19. This reminds me of when I was taking a look at long-term sector returns a while back and, from my recollection, utilities were solidly in the top half (whereas most market cap indices essentially give you no exposure).

  20. I imagine "when" you check that will play a big role as well. Some sectors seem to swing in and out of fashion.

  21. It wasn't that long ago, maybe a couple of years. I was looking at a data set going back to the 70s and compared various periods and weighted moving averages. Staples and Healthcare were the real stalwarts.

  22. There are lots of ways to make money investing, but the way you're proposing is to compete with automated systems at their sole task. I'd try to avoid directly competing with a bunch of computers at what they're really good at as a source of income. This is assuming you're not sorting out your own solution.

  23. Hmm, I do understand this is basically a makeshift algo approach, guess my initial question is kinda in that direction to. If I was to work on an automatic solution for this, would there be any regulations that I should be aware of?

  24. Sorry, I probably don't think I know the rules for your country.

  25. Can't you capitalize the interest if needed?

  26. The problem with a lot of those sources that people point to support the notion is that it's honestly little more than marketing copy disguised as technical reports. They don't really stand up well to critical analysis of what the reports are claiming.

  27. I'm sure you can find similar products elsewhere, this is a Canadian market swap product (HXS.U):

  28. Old thread but interested in knowing more about this... Not seeing any brokers or info online regarding ways to access registered pension plan funds through a loan?

  29. You wouldn't access it, but you may be able to offer it as a non-cash asset for the purpose of collateral, which could provide justification for a lower interest rate or higher loan ceiling.

  30. Hmm okay might just need to ask some big banks if they’ll accept it. I should clarify I’m looking to do this with LIRA funds (RPP funds from past employer)

  31. You can't use a LOCKED IN Retirement Account (LIRA); they can't access those funds if you default.

  32. Where would switches found on the higher-end boards from companies like ASUS (ROG Rx Red/Blue - Optical/Mechanical), Steel Series (Omnipoint - Mechanical, maybe something optical because its software adjustable), Razer (Razer Green/Yellow/Orange - Mechanical), Logitech (GL Linear/Tactile/Clicky - Mechanical), etc.?

  33. you'll get some strong opinions on this sub, it's just how the internet is

  34. Maybe that's what I should have been most clear about, and would have gotten to my answers better:

  35. Is it better to plug the Arctic Liquid Freezer II 360 pump into the AIO header and fans into the CPU_FAN header, or should it all go to the CPU_FAN header?

  36. So the market still thinks there's some risk for it falling through as it is currently priced at $82 vs. the $95 price Microsoft wants to pay. Now the question is, do I bet it goes through for a 15% premium?

  37. Money also has a time value: even if the acquisition is guaranteed to occur, $95 whenever that happens is not worth $95 today.

  38. What you're basically doing here is making a bet that, in the long-term, inflation will reduce relative to these rates (and that a particular institution won't go under during that period). People who looked in very high long-term rates in the US in the 80s had fantastic returns with essentially no stress, but may developing nations have gone from high inflation to hyperinflation territory (with many financial institution bankruptcies).

  39. What kinds of businesses are less capital intensive?

  40. High relative capex costs: buildings, equipment, vehicles. Basically depreciating assets (which essentially indicates the need for replacement of these items in an inflationary environment to remain functional). Think manufacturing, materials (O&G, mining), etc.

  41. Value for $ that build is AWFUL, DDR5 is terrible value and offers no real benefit over DD4 and I would try and find a not scalped 3080 for less than what you paying for that card.... Newegg does drops, BestBuy is in person.. (I snagged mine on Newegg for 1100....)

  42. A 3080 would run about $1350 if they could stock it; they haven't seen one in months. Best buy hasn't seen any 3000 series cards in months.

  43. Follow-up: Does it make sense getting the 12700k over the 12600k for $100? There are no B660 boards coming our way anytime soon, so I'm "stuck" picking from z690. I'm hoping to grab a decent mid-tier as some of the highest-end ones seem ridiculously costed.

  44. I was making my first "real" project, a wooden mallet from

  45. Your counterpoint to perceived cherry-picking is one of the largest asset price bubbles in history?

  46. I'm pretty sure it was a compliment, isn't everyone complaining that boomers have all the money?

  47. Somebody better tell Nobel Prize winning economist Robert Schuller to stop wasting his time publishing CAPE valuation data, because

  48. Shiller stated that it's not intended as a predictor of impending market crashes.

  49. Examining the metric of private debt in a vacuum can lead to incorrect conclusions because of how sensitive it is to rate. Private debt service (the monthly interest paid) makes more sense, as debt will tend to naturally increase with rates this low. Obviously, the pandemic is creating some separate weirdness, I'm sure.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

News Reporter