Snapshot of Labour leads by 22%, marking one full year since the Conservatives last led (6 Dec 2021). Westminster VI (4 Dec): Labour 48% (+1) Conservative 26% (-1) Liberal Democrat 10% (-1) Green 6% (+1) Reform UK 5% (–) SNP 3% (–) Other 1% (–) Changes +/- 27 Nov :

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Worried about having to strip all that godawful wallpaper in Number 10?

Agreed. He's putting the party at serious risk of being elected into government.

Electoral Calculus (Proposed 2023 Boundaries):

If you put it in the region predictor it comes out with Labour on 513

And this is one of the better recent polls for them

"What the British Public want is.... bla, bla bla"

Seems amazing to think that a year ago there were enough hard of thinking to give the Tories a poll lead.

This time last year Partygate was only just starting to do the rounds, it was the beginning of the end: partygate caused the vote of no confidence, which Johnson won, but it was a mortal blow and kicked off a civil war in the party, and the Pincher affair eventually caused discontent to reach critical mass, leading to the summer of resignations, Johnson being deposed, Truss setting her new UK record, and now Sunak inheriting a dumpster fire with no plan or hope of putting it out...

Boris killed the party with Partygate which launched it into a civil war between the moderates and the Johnsonites which ended pretty badly for Johnson with the evidence of him knowing about Chris Pincher's behaviour when He tried to lie that he didn't know about it in Parliament which forced him to resign when Sunak and Javid starts the mass cabinet exodus.

The torys have had a good year

Off to a good finish Boris.

If these polls consistently show such a change they should trigger a general election. I know it’s not that simple, you know what I’m saying though.

It does seem utterly bizarre that we have no means of ousting a government that (if the polling is remotely accurate) the vast majority of the public no longer wants, outside of just waiting out the clock.

Hopefully the Reform party will build the momentum over the next 12 months to further dismantle the Tory party.

Honestly, I hope they don't. Reform are worse than the Tories, and Labour don't "need" Reform to split the Tory vote in order to win an absurd landslide. I would much rather not have another UKIP/BNP/NF-type party building a local base to fester on for future years.

There's something funny about this summary because the mere absence of the SNP shows just how entrenched into Scottish politics they became in only a few years. The current streak of unbroken SNP electoral wins only started in 2011 and yet 11 years later a 22pt lead for Labour can be analysed without mention of the third biggest party. This must be how Northern Irish parties feel.

Look at that graph, they've slid 4 points in a matter of a few weeks.

Anyone remember the Con(+3) meme.

Has the CON+2 meme really been dead a whole year? Gosh.

Redfield & Wilton Strategies