1. Tesla has all of the weaknesses and none of the strengths. A complex physical product that requires massive investments in factories and tooling, long development and lead times, and an entrenched competition that has been duplicating each other's technological advances for the last 70 years.

  2. But at the end of the day they make cars... And in 3 years most of the majors will have competitive electrics

  3. The robinhood podcast put it this way - Toyota is a mature orange tree. Consistently producing in-demand goods. Tesla is a young avocado tree - hardly produces anything, but the product is popular with millennials and the tree could potentially grow quite large. The market currently values young avocado trees more than mature orange trees.

  4. It is better to compare enterprise value then it is to compare market cap. Of course Toyota make much more cars then Tesla, Toyota have more then 150 billion in debt that is going towards making cars.

  5. It's already worth much more unless the fully diluted toyota numbers are different from what a basic google tells you. Tesla added the entire mkcap of toyota plus 30b more in just the last 11 months.

  6. If you seriously think comparing old auto ICE vehicle volume to what TSLA is doing in the next 5-10 years means anything, then idk what else to say but enjoy watching the ride up to 10k. Nobody is buying the stock for what the company is going to do this year, next year or even the year after that. Look back at Amazon a decade ago and idiots made the exact same comments 😂

  7. Toyota has a 7% profit margin on each car sold. Tesla has a 25% (and growing) profit margin on earch car sold. Unlike Toyota, they cut out the middle man and a huge number of suppliers. They are almost the definition of vertically integrated.

  8. People get confused about “tech” companies. It’s only software that supports exponential profit on limited capex. Hardware (or cars) however technologically advanced, are still physical products, and should never be valued the way software companies are.

  9. Tesla is like AAPL. Same target consumers (upper middle class+), same marketing, best in class product, and integrated ecosystem. I don’t own TSLA stock, but when I’ll need a car (currently live in the city), my first choice is a Tesla over any other comparatively shittier brands (BMW, Audi, Mercedes).

  10. Except for self driving. If Tesla can pull off full self driving first they can add it to all their cars for almost zero cost and they'll have a monopoly on that market for at least a few years. Why would you buy a car you have to drive if for roughly the same price you can get one that drives itself?

  11. It probably doesnt make sense, but the markets are always pricing the future. Clearly the market is thinking that Tesla is going to have a brighter future than Ford/GM.

  12. I mean they're the market leader in portable electrical energy storage when you think about it. Mount a tesla tractor truck battery on the back of a cybertruck, give it camlock connections and you've got an extremely portable power source for everything from construction trailers, to emergency power outages.

  13. I've got the same feeling. I like TESLA, i like its stock and I believe in its potential, but at this price? wow, It feels like it is already already pricing its upcoming years yet to arrive!

  14. I bought some shares around 500 and I am starting to get very anxious now. It brings me back to 2017 when I was left holding the Bitcoin bag, I think I will honestly sell like 80% of my shares and just dump the money into s&p 500 ETF that I invest monthly in

  15. Yes, and in 1910, there were probably horse-driven carriage manufacturers that sold more units than Ford, but Ford's emphasis on technology in 1910 made it the superior investment opportunity.

  16. Here here! The Chipworth Carriage Manufacturing Company produces far more units than this newcomer Henry Ford's "motor" company! It's but duck soup to strap an engine to a carriage, but how should we know how it will run a decade from now? My trusty steed needs nothing but good oats! With that and my axe and plane, plus a trusted wheelright, I need not count on supply of such exotic materials as "refined oil" for my transport!

  17. I still can't see the value in paying 30k+ for an ev, when a used gas car can be purchased for under 6k. Depends on where you live, and how much you drive. For me personally it would be a really bad financial decision even with the government discount and money saved on gas. Having said that though, the car is awesome, and if I ever buy a toy, a tesla would be my choice. Off topic, sorry.

  18. Things stopped making sense in mkt long time ago, I stopped complaining and started riding the wave instead..perhaps you should try that too OP

  19. Most people see Ford and GM as outdated struggling companies that are too lethargic to innovate and regain market. Most people see them becoming less and less relevant and don’t want to invest in that. Thus the low valuation.

  20. Irrational exuberance. Check out Intel stock back in 2000 and now where it is today. That's what's happening with Tesla. At some point other car manufacturers will come out with electric cars. Toyota has a lot more production capability than Tesla. So what's stopping them from coming out with a competitor? Also NIO is a rising company in the electric car industry. At some point people will dump Tesla. It will still be a good company, but the valuation will be much lower.

  21. Companies use debt and equity to finance their businesses. Market value ignores the debt. Instead use enterprise value which includes both.

  22. I can't believe I had to scroll so far down to find this. Toyota has 150 billion in debt. It's mandatory to consider enterprise value for these companies. Looking at equity value without looking at the bonds is just too incomplete to mean much.

  23. Would be cool if they got it but any real AI is unsolved problem and I would honestly be surprised if it even gets solved during my lifetime. The current machine learning systems mostly operate on huge amounts of data and miss many edge cases because there is no general reasoning like in the human brain

  24. I'm probably not a good example but as a car enthusiast, who has owned over 20 cars, here is how I see it.

  25. OTA updates is one of the most overlooked parts in identifying Tesla’s value. Not to mention, a lot of young people have Tesla as a dream car. It’s very popular amongst young people

  26. Ford and GM are restructuring towards EV and not doing so hot at it while Tesla is growing and dominating. Tesla is about to post very impressive profitability and could foreseeably be the most profitable auto manufacturer within a few years.

  27. Investors don’t care so much about what a company did. They care more about what the future potential of the company is.

  28. Tesla investor here. I bought Tesla because in my mind there is zero doubt that in 10 years all new cars will be pure electric and Tesla is still the only pure electric car company in the world. All other car makers will have to go through an ugly, ugly transformation process - some of them will die on the way.

  29. The power of reflexivity. Many highly convicted parties on both sides, TSLA is a high stakes game of momentum

  30. It's all about the future from today's perspective. Could Ford and GM turn into a Tesla killer 5-10 years from now? Sure, but unlikely, again, from today's view.

  31. They do not have Elon Musk. That’s really what it boils down too. You can argue back and forth about their battery capabilities (over a decade away from being on any grid), their electric car market advantage (maybe a year at most), their patents ("good faith" means if you don’t let me use yours you cant use mine, so both would get sued), or their ownership of SolarCity and valuation as a overall technology company. But really, they have a once in a generation CEO. Steve Jobs was treated the same way as was Bill Gates. Elon may have less performance in his fundamentals in his company, but has proven with PayPal, SpaceX, and Tesla he can achieve things other leaders can not. So with that public faith comes investment and a sky high valuation, and if he fails in a few years then it will be a stock fall for the ages.

  32. I'm in the same boat as you, TLSA is overvalued as fuck (atleast to me). Don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is innovative and maybe the future of transportation.

  33. the market is forward thinking. EV is the future of automobiles. Tesla is already there (and killing it). Ford and Toyota and GM are behind the EV curve compared to Tesla. Honestly anthing EV is fuckin hot right now. Just look at what NKLA did a few weeks ago. Or the analyst could be right- the stock is way over valued.

  34. To me it doesn't make sense, I thought $300 per share was already crazy over valued honestly. With all the major manufacturers shifting over to electric in the next 5 years, I'm in a wait and see approach at this point, and really I'd bet on the field because they at least have been building more complex vehicles for longer so you'd think they can figure it out also because of the lower p/e ratio hence a better value proposition. Telsa could continue strong though for a while, but I just can't justify it in my mind right now.

  35. Tesla is overvalued at this price imo. But the comparison that people keep making with Tesla and legacy OEM's continues to be flawed even when you ignore all the other things Tesla is working on besides purely car manufacturing.

  36. People think they will have higher margins. If you think they can maintain ~20% gross margins and continue to grow sales (I don’t), it’s pretty easy to justify a pretty high market cap.

  37. You are getting all kinds of answers about Tesla being more than a car company, a tech company, growth potential, etc. None of those answers have any semblance of an attempt to value Tesla shares.

  38. Saying Tesla is a car company is like saying Amazon is an online book company or that Apple makes personal computers.

  39. How many times do we have to do this ? Someone fucking sticky this question to the top of this subreddit as it gets asked EVERY SINGLE FUCKING DAY

  40. Pretty simple, people see massive growth coming in the next 10 years. Sort of how Amazon stock went.

  41. the answer is, people are willing to pay the current price for a share of Tesla.. You can buy a share of Ford for 1300 dollars though, nobody is stopping you

  42. You do know Tesla does more then automobiles right? They are getting a big jump on green utilities. Solar and storage. Also recharge capabilities for said automobiles.

  43. I am not going to make any comment if its fairly valued but investors are looking 10 years down the line and are expecting TESLA to grow a lot over the next 10 years

  44. That rocket on the barge is not Tesla. While quite impressive, the idea you are conflating the two is indeed why Tesla is in meme stock territory. Lockheed Martin could land a rocket on a barge, but yet they have a reasonable P/E and regular valuation.

  45. Can we not just sticky a tesla thread or better still ban them, they all ask the same question every damn day

  46. Beyond the revenue figures, Tesla owns and operates its entire manufacturing pipeline. They don't subcontract anything and that keeps their costs comparatively low vs. their competition.

  47. If by "more like this" you mean asking the same basic question for the 1000th time accompanied by zero analysis then maybe "hot investing ideas" is the wrong name for your sub

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