1. Working on the assumption that there's not that much variation set to set for Standard sets and quarter to quarter for D&D revenue, wow this shows just how much MH2 was printed. The release date was towards the end of June 2021, so there's probably a lot of revenue still in the Sept 2021 quarter. June + Sept 2020 had 3 standard sets (and Double Masters and Jumpstart) and total revenue of 460 million. June + Sept 2021 also had 3 standard sets (with a lot less supplemental) but a total revenue of 766 million. MH2 was 300 million in revenue above Double Masters + Jumpstart.

  2. I agree with your interpretation but just want to point out. Double Masters and Jumpstart were in 2020 with production issues caused by covid. Jumpstart supply was so tight, if memory serves me, almost reached $200 a box. Ikoria also started showing up later as well. Revenue of those sets, despite my notes about most revenue in quarter they release, will also be boosting the later quarters. I added an EDIT in Quick Important Points because you reminded me.

  3. Ikoria is probably covered by these 2 quarters given that its release date was in May, so even a slow release on it would be mostly done by the end of September. Double Masters never really had a full print run that saw prices crash, but you're right that Jumpstart trickled out for a decently long time. It does make me wonder how these numbers interact with the creative accounting big companies always seem to do regarding when the revenue actually hits the quarterly totals.

  4. All cards on the list do not have an equal pull rate: by rarity, they appear at the "proper rate" to each other, so mythics and rares are less frequent than commons, but I have never seen what that actually comes out to in practice. That makes the math hard to do to calculate the true estimated slot value. Apart from SNC, the value of the list is pretty steady from set to set. I find it to be about $10-15 per set booster box.

  5. I will not buy new foils online sight-unseen anymore. An unknown portion of the foils in DMR (including old-border foils) are the kind of blurry dull foils we've seen from various other recent products (while some look great). You're taking a gamble buying these foils, even in DMR the quality control is just not there.

  6. In my experience from opening, it's the Collector Booster foils that are foggy and bad and the Draft Booster foils that are bright and shiny.

  7. With TCGPlayer's "Store your Products" system, all inventory has to be live, you can't selectively hide individual items. So as a workaround, sellers list the inventory at 999.99 so that it doesn't sell

  8. It's also the default price when SYP inventory gets listed.

  9. Here's what I get in my pocket selling a single $10 card with my expenses kept as low as possible because I've spent the time and effort to get supplies in bulk:

  10. Knowing that there's nothing over $5, if you can sell them as a bulk lot somewhere like Facebook or Ebay, you might get 50% if you're lucky and have already done the work of documenting every card. It takes a lot of work to move a lot of not-quite-bulk, and the fees for selling them really eat into the claimed market value. Barring that, buylist what Card Kingdom will take and leave the rest in a box for a potential spike in the future.

  11. This is already collecting reports. Do you think there should be a mandatory text writeup associated with all videos as a new rule? Upvote this comment for yes, downvotes for no. Or reply and I will read the replies. I will pin this so it stays at the top no matter how it's voted.

  12. I think linked written market tracking content should at a minimum include the cards being referenced in the title. And videos should additionally require a written tldw because I can skim an article and see the main points, but I'm not interested in sitting through a whole video that may or may not be saying anything useful or concise.

  13. It's been a decent while since he actually had prices that were competitive with the cheapest out there. That has been balanced with the fact that you can pay 2-6 weeks closer to release than some other options. But he has also used that to his advantage to set a price that is typically 10% below mass market price but 5% above the savvy consumer floor. Places where you lock in your order earlier (MVP, GGAZ, etc) give you the best prices but you have to take on more risk of how good the product will be.

  14. The sites that have already been posted give a rough estimate that's good enough to see general trends, but there's nothing out there that really accounts for everything in one place (foils, alternate art, valuable commons and uncommons, etc). Plus, everyone has their own way to value cards. Do you want the TCG market price, median, or low? What's the threshold to count? Does every card count the same - after fees, 10x $0.50 cards won't leave you with as much money as 1 $5 card, but do you want to account for that in your EV calculation?

  15. I'm on their Patreon, and I buy from MVP a lot as well. I'm not charged tax, but I am charged shipping. For DMR, their draft boxes after shipping came out about $4 cheaper than MVP (150-151 a box), and collector boxes were about the same but with more available. Jumpstart 2022 ended up being $2 more a box than MPV's first flash price, but I was fine with that price to get the additional supply. BRO collector boxes were 190 preorder. They also had some good prices on slightly older products both a few months back and again just before the end of the year. NEO collector boxes at 167, ZNR set boxes at 88, stuff like that. I've bought enough that my Patreon fee adds less than 2% to the total I've spent.

  16. Trying to read the locked patreon posts it seems the holidays really crushed them. Or was the slowness in updates starting before then?

  17. I'm not sure exactly what sort of slowness you're referring to, but there's not a regular schedule for updates. They just come as there's new products available, or news about the Patreon. And often, they'll come as a bunch of updates all in a row, such as if a whole bunch of products are all being added to the store.

  18. Based on the places I use to buy boxes, the supply on this feels truly gigantic compared to TSR and even MH2. I think it'll follow MH2's price path: maybe a bit of a peak at first, but draft boxes will gradually fall to 150, and collector boxes will gradually increase a little bit to 300-350.

  19. MH2 is a different beast and not limited. You can not compare them. There wont be fresh DMR after 1 year of release like its been with MH2.

  20. Based on my perception of the increased initial supply, I still think MH2 is a valid comparison. If DMR has one print run now of 2x the size, it's not that different from a 1x size print run now and another 1x size print run in a year.

  21. I don't have the data in front of me, but I do recall having a better pull rate of both persistent petitioners and other blueprint cards for the drop that includes 599. The February Superdrop that included street fighter, I think. I also think it was the last drop before they rotated the available blueprint cards.

  22. You'll just have a negative balance in your tcgplayer seller account until you have more sales to bring it positive again. I suppose there's a point in time where they would care, but I've have a negative seller balance for a couple of weeks with no problems.

  23. I'm limited to just 12 collector boxes. By comparison, I was allocated 8 cases of 2x2 collectors. I did get a lot of allocation for draft cases at least. I locked in basically the same prices on Amazon when they first went up, and I got to set my own quantity limits. MVP is still good for reliable early shipping and standard prices (not exceptional on price anymore, but reliably at the price floor for initial release), but this might be a pass from me.

  24. But how many has he actually played (or played more than once)? At this point, I feel more like a board game collector for the number of games that I haven't managed to play at all yet.

  25. I have the same on some of my full art basics from set boxes. It's not a texture on the card itself, but it's very obvious.

  26. In this world of perpetual hype, a set that literally hasn't even hit its official release date being liquidated sounds about right.

  27. Total value removed: about $180, with about 12 cards worth more than $3

  28. I got [[Day of Judgment]], [[Wrath of God]], [[Parallax Wave]], promo foils of [[In Garruk's Wake]] and [[Soul Collector]], and a Beta [[Paralyze]]. Conditions of everything is MP to HP. If everything was NM, it would be worth $35 or so, and in the conditions I got it's at least $15. I'm definitely pleased with what I got.

  29. I know we like nothing more than to beat a dead horse, but this article is nothing more than "I opened 8 packs and didn't get anything good". Prof says it, this subreddit says it, don't crack packs for value. It's also calling free packs a loss because someone sold them for $800 when they will be on sale in the future for $1000. I sold mine for $1100, and saw a store buying them for $225 as the event wrapped up on Sunday. And others experience waiting in line for MaRo autographs indicated it was far from universal to get packs for waiting in line. Plus, it doesn't mention actually selling the cards, just an estimation of value based on an entirely different product. Yes, this product sucks. Yes, you shouldn't open it. But this is just the same frustrations and cherry picked anecdotes from here repackaged as an article.

  30. I also had a Black Lotus badge, and am absolutely planning to get it again. Setting aside the free value of the 30th Anniversary packs, I got to have a truly awesome time because of my badge. On both Saturday and Sunday in the Black Lotus lounge, there were Mystery Booster drafts and Commander pods with WotC employees and other influencers. I got to draft with Gavin Verhey and someone involved in store outreach on Saturday and Aaron Forsythe on Sunday. It was so great to just chat about Magic and their involvement in it with all of them. There were also plenty of other interesting Magic employees and influencers to say hello to. Mark Rosewater spent a lot of time in the VIP lounge throughout the weekend and was always very generous with his time to sit and talk.

  31. What did you have to pay for past the price of entry? I heard from a buddy who went all out that he was very disappointed that the badge got you "the opportunity to pay for more stuff" like the steep entry fee wasn't enough.

  32. Yes, you had to pay for tournaments, but often the price wasn't too far out of line from how much the packs would cost to get yourself. For example, I did a Halloween sealed of all the Innistrad sets, and it cost $75. To buy all 7 packs would cost you probably 65. And, the entry fee to the venue is somewhere from partially to substantially offset by the cards and accessories you got with it, depending on how highly you might value some of the non-card parts.

  33. I was unable to go and I am curious how was it? Was it worth the money? Not trolling or anything, genuinely curious. Also hope you find some games!

  34. I would say people's individual experiences or evaluation of if it was worth it really depends. There were a lot of delays in tournaments, especially on Friday. But honestly, that's pretty par for the course in big events. I learned long ago to leave way more time than you expect between events, so I only booked 2 events a day at like 11 and 4. I found plenty to do with my time between events. If you wanted you weekend to be grind an event every 3 hours for maximum prizes, it probably wasn't worth it for that.

  35. How much different is this than any other recent set? We're right in the period that is usually the pre-release floor. For DMU, 3.5 weeks before release set boxes were 122. The exact sales history for SNC is too far back, but the averages graph has them at about 114. NEO had a floor of 107 further out from release but had spiked and was falling by the 3.5 week date to about 119. BRO at 113 right now is pretty much in line with recent sets. Now, whether the cost basis has increased and more stores are losing money, I have no idea. But this seems very typical.

  36. They sent this out 5 days ago, and they were correct about lower prices showing up on Amazon later that day. However, they have a bit of a mixed history of their market predictions. On the basis of nothing at all, printing additional 40k decks sounds like a good idea so I wouldn't be surprised if this is true, but I don't trust it any extra because it's coming from MVP.

  37. Most of the prices that low are using TCGDirect, or at least were set with that intention. With Direct, you get to package up several days worth of orders in a single shipment back to TCGPlayer so one additional 10 cent card doesn't really add to your shipping cost. Some orders do end up as a loss individually, but it's worth it to have all those cheap things available for Direct or as add-ons.

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