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  1. Yep. I have learned that it is really fucking bullshit. The way crypto and stuff like Gamestop got manipulated by a bunch of assholes on the internet, then you better believe that a shit load of billionares are capable of doing whatever the fuck they want to manipulate things. This is the lesson that we should learn form all of these things. The stock market is fucking bullshit.

  2. The heat death of the universe is priced in

  3. Gasoline really edged this one down. If you look at each category, there wasn’t a meaningful decrease in inflation in any category.

  4. Barring some black swan event It’s going to take a long fucking time to get back to 2% with the labor market the way it is

  5. $2.2 million? What is this, a fine for ants?

  6. Right? The fine for a $1T company is barely enough to get one boring ass house near a coast. Why even bother

  7. Long term 10 year stock portfolio, fairly evenly spread at around 4% each at the moment, besides SCHD and O Realty Income Corp. Dividends reinvested.

  8. Way too much to realistically follow.

  9. To bears stocks will always be overvalued. Even when Dow went under 20k in 2020 some ppl were saying its still overvalued. There's no satisfying bears when it comes to valuations. Also stock market is almost always overvalued most of the time. Only during major crashes does it become undervalued temporarily. Even then bears still refuse to buy. I simply don't understand this mindset.

  10. Somebody’s buying or else it would never go back up

  11. The bear market rallies on inflation easing and perceived conciliatory statements from the Fed give the impression of a market trying to time a Fed pivot like Dec 2018. Whether this Fed behavior is still on the table seems like the million dollar question.

  12. This, the highest inflation from 2012 to 2020 was 2.5%. 0 reason for the fed to raise. In 2014 there was almost deflation.

  13. Yeah but asset inflation was threw the roof

  14. So purely anecdotal but interesting nonetheless......I had an appointment for 2 rear tires put on my car the other day at a very national chain, Firestone. They had a massive bay with 6 lanes/12 lifts. Had a 4pm appt. Of course I was gonna wait I told them it should take 30 min? No more like an hour and a half they told me. Hmmmm....well whatever. Little did I know that while there were anywhere from 5-6 cars in there at a time, they had a total of 3 employees, 2 of which who looked to be plucked straight out of high school class. The other was a 70 yr old. I asked the guy why it was taking so long, and he said we are doing the best we can we just can't find anyone competent to work right now. Or even not competent to just fill out our staff. It ended up taking 3 HOURS to put 2 new tires on. 3. HOURS.

  15. I agree with what ur seeing but what do u suggest be done instead?

  16. Maybe just accept that 2% inflation is unrealistic. Target 3-4-5% for a while, increase immigration, reduce rates so that builders can start building houses again, which would reduce the housing portion of inflation that is very significant at the moment.

  17. I agree with the immigration thing but just giving up otherwise is a bad idea. Then inflation really becomes entrenched. Have you looked up the Taylor rule by chance?

  18. I honestly feel like this market is just straight up artificial. This rally for the past month makes 0 sense at all. Inflation still went up and will likely go up again upcoming CPI thanks to rising oil, tech missed with bad guidance, bonds actually reached 4.3 at one point and we still rallied nearly 1-3% every day. Its ridiculous.

  19. Next week will be interesting. A lot of the run up was driven by the fed blackout period. Media is pushing a baseless narrative about fed pivoting. There is no evidence to support that. Once the next fed meeting is over and the feds start talking again we should see a reversal of what happened last week.

  20. The idiots on tv that keep pitching the fed pivot are the same ones that were telling us subprime was contained back in 07-08. Literally

  21. Still wayyyyy too much money sloshing around the system. Why has the Dow rallied 3000 points in 2 weeks on basically nothing? Why is a bitcoin still worth $20k? IMO the fed still has a LOT of work to do if they actually want to fix the inflation problem. Look up the Taylor rule.

  22. And rent will go up; they will likely meet in the middle.

  23. Not unless wages go up drastically

  24. A bear market where stocks, bonds and gold all go down with basically no safe havens is most certainly not normal.

  25. This was called the “everything bubble” for a reason. Yields should have never been as low as they were but thanks to $9T of money printing that’s where we are today.

  26. You’re probably right but be prepared to be down voted to oblivion

  27. Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, and we're still more about the second part. After WW2, inflation shot up to 18% as supply chains had trouble meeting demand for consumer goods. They kept rates at 2%, inflation went to 9% the next year, then 3% after that. The unemployment rate never went over 4%.

  28. What are they supposed to do? Let it spiral outta control?

  29. Raising rates can have the opposite effect on inflation. The longer they persist, the more of a negative impact they have on the economy. If the cost of capital remains high for a long period of time, there are less projects getting funding. The overall impact is a reduction in capacity, efficiency, production, you name it.

  30. You are right. That said it’s the ONLY option we have. Do you honestly believe any of the shit you suggested could fly politically? Hell no

  31. I think this is pretty close to exactly what the fed wants. Slowly increasing unemployment while inflation starts to dwindle. We get cpi in two weeks so we'll see what it looks like then.

  32. How exactly is it not? There are 2 jobs per job seeker right now. That’s insane

  33. This sounds exactly like the nonsense from late 2020 when people thought SPY would go back to 180. SPY was around 260 at the time.

  34. Only difference is this time the fed money printer isn’t on overdrive and they are actually sucking money out of the system.

  35. Is it really a surprise? These assholes think they are going to kill 8.5% inflation with 2-3% rates. They are basically pissing on a house fire with a garden hose. My prediction is they have to raise rates way higher and longer than the market thinks meanwhile burning down the middle and lower class.

  36. This is absurd. If the fed doesn't act fast the economy is going to get fucked. Their primary mandate is controlling inflation. If they won't act someone needs to be installed who will.

  37. Currently I Bonds guarantee 9.62% interest for 6 months if you purchase it from May through October this year.

  38. Maybe but it could take YEARS for things to find a bottom. Good luck

  39. 50bps isn't enough. Fuel prices are basically canceling them out. There's really nothing that can be done for immediate relief for fuel prices. We're locked into choosing to accept high inflation or a deep recession.

  40. We’ve needed a recession for a long time now. Inflation fucks over everyone and is completely unacceptable

  41. The 2017 tax cuts and subsequent record stock buy backs is what sent the market soaring into nonsensical territory; doubled in just a couple years

  42. Never made sense to me how cutting taxes 10% or whatever it was caused the stock market to go up 50% or whatever

  43. How hopeful can we be that this will bounce back a good amount quickly like in March?

  44. Ask jpow if he’s going to shit out more unlimited money anytime soon?

  45. I Bonds are inflation adjusted at least. And you can move 10k in per year

  46. I really don't understand why you are getting downvoted. It's as if people don't understand that "Don't fight the Fed" works both ways.

  47. Just like “the stock market is not the economy! “And then when things turned around suddenly it was 🙄

  48. I’m pretty fucked right now. Need to buy a house because we have a newborn and not enough space. Prices in my area keep skyrocketing with every house getting 50+ bids in a few days. I bid 1.7 mil on a house listed for 1.4 and it sold for 2.6. Meanwhile, my portfolio is too heavy in tech and has nose dived hard. Now interest rates have gone higher. So across the board I’m just getting kicked in the Dick when it comes to trying to buy a house and my diminishing buying power. It’s ungodly frustrating to realize how severely I missed the boat had I just pulled the trigger on a house mere months ago. Now even a dumpsterfire home seems impossible to buy.

  49. The fed does more by talking than they do by doing. This is increasingly how it’s been. They have talked themselves out of a back-to-the-cliff scenario by hardly doing anything at all. Also I think if you understand bond convexity, which I’m not saying I really do, these seemingly small moves at/near 0 have huge implications on the amount of capital required to generate cash flow, where a 1/4 percent move from 4 to 4.25 does not.

  50. That’s why zirp is like a financial black hole

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