State of the market megathread

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The process of taking a painful L

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AMA with $FGNA Director Kyle Cerminara

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Daily Discussion for May-14-2021

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CDC plans to drop mask requirements for fully vaccinated people

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Did somebody say 'Murica?

  1. In Phoenix: they will end up using that $100k to buy water once the Colorado river dries up.

  2. Yuuuuuuup. Has nobody buying out there even bothered to take a little trip to Lake Mead? Yikes.

  3. Specifically in San Francisco, the building department is monumentally corrupt. And that's before you get into the NIMBY-heavy process. Building anything is a nightmare.

  4. Because why wouldn’t you? More jobs + no new housing = guaranteed way to make yourself rich...

  5. As someone with puts on the market, it's so stupid to bet against this market. The fact that it's so obviously being held up by artificial money and political interference makes it clear: you're not betting against a market. You're betting against a corporate political power structure that will let it fall apart when it benefits them.

  6. And somehow you didn’t realize this, like, before you bought puts? Lol

  7. Anyone go through with shorting GIX/UPH?

  8. I travelled from CA to Nashville to stress test the vaccine (J&J) in May. Science works, folks.

  9. Stress testing a vaccine with only 66% efficacy at preventing symptomatic disease? Things that make you go hmmm.

  10. “93 percent effective at preventing hospitalization for COVID-19 14 days after vaccination and 100 percent effective 28 days after.”

  11. Can it work? Sure, it’s theoretically possible. Is it a good idea? Absolutely not.

  12. Lol at everyone that thinks the market will stay piping hot until 2023 when interest rates rise, then drop all of a sudden when that actually happens. Virtually all markets are forward-looking, y’all...

  13. The stock market is forward looking. Residential real estate markets are distinctly not forward looking.

  14. Except they are, because the price action is driven in no small part by real estate investors...

  15. It’s crazy how many “great team” spacs I’m bagholding while random no name 150m trust spacs find companies that pop off like they’re merging with Apple part 2.

  16. Seriously, such a weird thing to see people vehemently against another asset/sector. Like, not caring is an option too. You don’t see people saying “man fuck Eurobonds” or “fuck all those people buying platinum futures!”

  17. It’s not an “asset,” it’s literally digital toilet paper lmao

  18. And we were happily paying $20 (etc) for a $10 item... So are we claiming to be smarter? lol

  19. Yes you should. Because once you’re in the game, it frees you up to not be worried about what the market is doing. Home prices going up? Both your current home and prospective purchases go up. Market is crashing? Your new home is cheaper. Being picky when you own nothing is the only mistake you can make.

  20. Yeah, so you buy a home at the top...then decide to move a year or two later and realize that your “new home” would be so much cheaper, but now you’re underwater on your current home, lost your job, and your lender is filing foreclosure paperwork. Lmao people have such short memories 😂

  21. Lmfao losing money on 5 year warrants with a deal announced with 350M EBITDA at less than 3x revenue multiple? Yeah that's not happening but thanks for your advice.

  22. It’s not an insult I just find it amusing to set reminders on posts where people are very confident in their positions lol, gratz on the gains

  23. But he did say on Twitter a while back that he was tripling down on his TSLA short when it was mid-900s...guess that worked out well for him, what a baller lol

  24. PSTH will get literally any size PIPE it wants directly from PS

  25. So AMRS trades at 14x 2021E revenue, and Ginkgo wants to be valued at 119x 2021E rev? Yuck. Remind me why people are buying this 💩?

  26. That’s your strategy tho. Remember, you’re also basically even when market is red. Pros and cons

  27. Called warrants, then announced a bunch of news that promptly made the warrants worthless (as the stock price dropped below the warrant strike very quickly)

  28. I like SPACman, but I’m not paying >20% over NAV for any SPAC in this market

  29. It certainly didn't help that the CDC lied about masks in the beginning to try to save stock for healthcare workers.

  30. Yep. Pretty sure that tweet from the Surgeon General telling people to “STOP BUYING MASKS! They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus...” should be in all future textbooks as Exhibit A in how not to respond to a looming pandemic.

  31. TSLA has repeatedly stated they will not use LIDAR. Ever.

  32. Short them all into the ground. Not worth trying to fight the tide any longer lol

  33. For anyone thinking of doing this, it would only work with spacs that have merged where warrants are exercisable.

  34. And if the warrants get called you could get slightly wrecked, depending on how far out the calls you sold are...

  35. Not good at decimal points, eh? You're off by 100. Case fatality rate is 580K deaths / 32M confirmed positive = 1.8%. The number you put is the fraction of the entire US population that has already died of Covid (580K/ 328M = 0.017% 0.17%).

  36. Lmao your decimal points are off too, the fraction of the US population that has died of COVID (using your numbers) is 0.17%, not 0.017%.

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