WARNING: 6 weeks ago, I was able to name only two college football players. But in the last 6 weeks, I’ve listened to podcasts, read content and scrolled through some Reddit posts about the draft. I still know nothing, but now I think I know things. I’ll use my new found knowledge to articulate overconfident and loud opinions about how teams did in the NFL draft. You have been warned. Happy Draft Day, friends!
I can't wait to go to my draft day party, mention how I think it would be cool if this team took this player, and then get told I'm wrong because that team would never do that and I'm stupid and should never watch football again
Have you ever posted OC here? You should try that. You get a hundred people telling you’re stupid and should never watch football again. It’s the most efficient way to maximize your insults all in once place.
False narratives = litter box in schools trope. Another is the constant association of LGBTQ folks with pedophilia, aka “grooming”. Two easy examples off the top of my head.
A reminder that Mitch Trubisky holds the record for the most pass attempts in history by a QB with no pick-sixes. We laugh at the Bears, but in hindsight they nailed this pick.
I see him as being mediocre at best - will see in eight years. Look at the past USC QB’s Leinart, Palmer, Darnold, Barkley and others. Look at the history of the Bears QB’s Yep, I’m playing the odds.
Let him go to Chicago with Caleb. He's too pure of a soul to deal with the New York media and expectations. Bears fans will treat him well and provide a perfect environment for him to become the best receiver in the league. He's been here in Seattle and it's just harsher in so many ways in New York. Went to college out East and my roommate was from Queens so we visited there a fair bit.
Honestly we owe you a debt in Seattle. Defeating the Patriots in the SB twice when we couldn't and almost nobody else ever did. I feel like league should not begrudge you any further success as the alternative to your two rings was almost certainly the Pats dynasty getting 2 more. Whoever you pick I hope they're elite and you crush the division, especially them Cowboys.
Thank you! We need more than hitting on a WR in the draft. But my hope is they don’t try to reach for a QB this year, get that WR, probably suck one more year, and find a new QB in the draft for FA next year. And be back on track in a few years. We need to be patient.
I will be doing a win chart as well and the diagonal line will be multiple hypothetical lines based on 4 realistic scenarios. One scenario will be using his win rate over his career, another will be his win rate over the last 5 seasons.
I do know he needs to average slightly better than a 12-5 record over 5 years. It’s doable, but not likely. Ballpark about a 10% chance of that happening. 1 down year throws the whole thing off.
You don’t see him in his office drawing up plays either, or at practice coaching up his guys, but you’ll give him credit cause he’s the head coach. But for the kids the have his genetics, you don’t think he deserves any blame for that? Gotcha. Username in fact does not check out.
I can’t critique your analysis? Didn’t realize you were impervious to feedback. If your going to be so bold to post your analysis on the internet , you should expect all sorts of feedback. Your data is displaying information about Reid’s success as football coach, how is that not giving him credit? And he deserves credit on the football field. I just think it should be noted of his effect off the field too. You know, where shit actually matters.
Not only that, but teams also put more effort into the development of players drafted early. So they are not only given more chances, but they also get more focused diet and exercise support, more reps in practice against top guys, and probably often more time in the film room.
This illustrates how overrated the position is and desperate teams are to find a franchise QB. Not every top level QB will make your team competitive and not every system can utilize a QB's talents.
Using the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the combined value returned for trading Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones is 83 points. 83 pts is equivalent of the 105th pick. The median type of player at 105th is Ko Simpson or Bryan Stork.
Pace was the second jersey I ever owned. First was a Isaac Bruce jersey my dad gave me during the '99 season. Next year, I was able to start playing football, and I was playing OLine, so I bought a Pace jersey.
Orlando Pace was one who transcended the anonymity that usually comes with an OL. He came with a lot of hype coming out of college, IIRC he was in the top five for Heisman voting, and it was all warranted. Once in the NFL his pancake blocks were often a part of the weekly dialogue and highlights. He made headlines and was in our collective consciousness for all the right reasons.
I remember being confused with all the Daniel Jones hate. The Broncos were looking for a QB at the time so I'd been keenly invested in all the draft options. I wasn't 100% sold on DJ, but I'd have taken him ahead of Haskins. But on the day of the draft the Giants fans all seemed to be saying PLEASE NOT DANIEL JONES AT #6 and hyped this up to be the worst possible outcome. Yeah it was maybe a bit of a reach, but I'd argue that taking a RB at #2 in 2018 was more of a reach.
Picking a running back at #2 in 2018 was malpractice. I’m glad you brought that up. I was against that pick at the time as well. I kept explaining to my friends….”I like the player, not the pick!” When everyone was so hyped up about Barkley.
I mean in hindsight, Haskins might not have died in that accident had he been drafted by you guys and not drafted to Washington(right? Cant remember) and then ended up inPittsburgh
I think if my daughter said “hell yeah” first I would laugh, but try to hide my laughter, and then I would tell her that’s a naughty word and try not to say it
I've never understood how it's practical to assign a numerical value to draft picks. Who says that pick 1 is x amount more valuable than pick 2? How would you even begin to quantify that? I really don't think you can.
If you have enough data, and you know the success rate of the pick (career length, starter, av, stats, starts, etc) and you have this for every pic or bin the pics into groups of five or something like that. There’s no reason why you can’t do this. If I know a certain type of $1 lottery ticket has an average of a 10% payback, and another type of lottery ticket has an average of a one percent payback, I can tell you that the value of the first one is 10 times the value of the second one. It’s the same concept.
You left off “at a certain point.” A crucial modifier. If no one can explain to me how this conflict is won, how the tide can be turned without fantastical wishcasting, then we’re funding an endless meat grinder. Please, come back and tell me how that isn’t true. It’s essential to this entire conversation and you and everyone else won’t answer me other than to point to Congress maybe having super secret info that things are actually going great?
Your argument against anyone who wants to continue to fund Ukraine is that in order for their support to be logical, they have to explain how the conflict will be won. I’m a marketing analyst, I’m not a military strategist. By that logic, I can ask if you can explain to me how Russia doesn’t continue to roll over other countries if they easily capture Ukraine…and if you can’t explain that essential part of the conversation than what are you even doing here. I already told you what I think will happen, I don’t need to repeat it, because you didn’t accept it the first time.
The spending bill passed. $61B for Ukraine! This cost 1% of what we spent in all of 2023. This is pocket change for the US, and it’s going to help the fight against Russia in their attempt to weaken Western democracy, without putting one American boot on the ground, while also creating American jobs for the manufacturers of the supplies and weapons being provided. Why this no-brainer took so long to pass is beyond me, but at least we are here now. Mike Johnson will probably get ousted by the Russian sympathizer scum like Marjorie Taylor Green and her ilk, because of this. Kudos to Johnson for doing what’s right.
You should do some OC. It’s hard to create content from nothing, that satisfies everyone. But it’s easy to review content and suggest tweaks and changes in the comment section. Give it a try, I’d love to see it.
I’ve been posting here for 6 years, believe me, I can take constructive criticism. This was a quick post in which, I got out in front of the criticism, by literally writing in my post that the metric is flawed. The “better” metrics take much more time, which I don’t have this week (some weeks I do) which is why I made the “flawed metric comment” in my post.
WARNING: 6 weeks ago, I was able to name only two college football players. But in the last 6 weeks, I’ve listened to podcasts, read content and scrolled through some Reddit posts about the draft. I still know nothing, but now I think I know things. I’ll use my new found knowledge to articulate overconfident and loud opinions about how teams did in the NFL draft. You have been warned. Happy Draft Day, friends!
I can't wait to go to my draft day party, mention how I think it would be cool if this team took this player, and then get told I'm wrong because that team would never do that and I'm stupid and should never watch football again
Have you ever posted OC here? You should try that. You get a hundred people telling you’re stupid and should never watch football again. It’s the most efficient way to maximize your insults all in once place.
Like what
False narratives = litter box in schools trope. Another is the constant association of LGBTQ folks with pedophilia, aka “grooming”. Two easy examples off the top of my head.
1/3 of the country is making that stuff a top priority? Are you not making up a false narrative in that comment?
1/3 of the country is MAGAs, so no.
A reminder that Mitch Trubisky holds the record for the most pass attempts in history by a QB with no pick-sixes. We laugh at the Bears, but in hindsight they nailed this pick.
How the fuck was this nailed pick when he’s the reason they couldn’t get over the hump with that defense ?
😳
Amazing. Kudos on the chart, the insights and the effort.
The moment you take down the government, will be the moment you realize how important government is. These “burn it all down” people are clueless.
I see him as being mediocre at best - will see in eight years. Look at the past USC QB’s Leinart, Palmer, Darnold, Barkley and others. Look at the history of the Bears QB’s Yep, I’m playing the odds.
Palmer doesn’t belong in that group. He had a solid 14 year career and is well above the median for a 1st overall pick at QB.
Let him go to Chicago with Caleb. He's too pure of a soul to deal with the New York media and expectations. Bears fans will treat him well and provide a perfect environment for him to become the best receiver in the league. He's been here in Seattle and it's just harsher in so many ways in New York. Went to college out East and my roommate was from Queens so we visited there a fair bit.
He seems like the safest pick at WR. Personality is very likable, I would be thrilled to get him.
Honestly we owe you a debt in Seattle. Defeating the Patriots in the SB twice when we couldn't and almost nobody else ever did. I feel like league should not begrudge you any further success as the alternative to your two rings was almost certainly the Pats dynasty getting 2 more. Whoever you pick I hope they're elite and you crush the division, especially them Cowboys.
Thank you! We need more than hitting on a WR in the draft. But my hope is they don’t try to reach for a QB this year, get that WR, probably suck one more year, and find a new QB in the draft for FA next year. And be back on track in a few years. We need to be patient.
ah whoops my bad I didn’t read the title right - I get it now
I will be doing a win chart as well and the diagonal line will be multiple hypothetical lines based on 4 realistic scenarios. One scenario will be using his win rate over his career, another will be his win rate over the last 5 seasons.
that would be great - curious to see what that would look like
I do know he needs to average slightly better than a 12-5 record over 5 years. It’s doable, but not likely. Ballpark about a 10% chance of that happening. 1 down year throws the whole thing off.
You don’t see him in his office drawing up plays either, or at practice coaching up his guys, but you’ll give him credit cause he’s the head coach. But for the kids the have his genetics, you don’t think he deserves any blame for that? Gotcha. Username in fact does not check out.
What credit am I giving him? I made a chart showing data? bad analogy.
I can’t critique your analysis? Didn’t realize you were impervious to feedback. If your going to be so bold to post your analysis on the internet , you should expect all sorts of feedback. Your data is displaying information about Reid’s success as football coach, how is that not giving him credit? And he deserves credit on the football field. I just think it should be noted of his effect off the field too. You know, where shit actually matters.
lol, initially I thought this was about winningest coach. And was about to ask what’s your per season win rate for Reid 😅
I’m doing wins as well. Keep an eye out. It will have a few different scenarios.
On what fucking planet is Devin White a bust?
He was drafted 5th overall. Thats a high bar. He has underperformed the average 5th overall pick.
Not only that, but teams also put more effort into the development of players drafted early. So they are not only given more chances, but they also get more focused diet and exercise support, more reps in practice against top guys, and probably often more time in the film room.
The minimum salary in the NFL is $795,000. If a player is on the team, they’re not working two jobs.
And none since. I literally have three comments on here before you replied to me telling me I’m missing out. Sorry to ruin your “gotcha”.
You: you haven’t even commented on this thread
This illustrates how overrated the position is and desperate teams are to find a franchise QB. Not every top level QB will make your team competitive and not every system can utilize a QB's talents.
I don’t see how the failure of these picks illustrates the QB position being overrated.
Using the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, the combined value returned for trading Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones is 83 points. 83 pts is equivalent of the 105th pick. The median type of player at 105th is Ko Simpson or Bryan Stork.
Pace was the second jersey I ever owned. First was a Isaac Bruce jersey my dad gave me during the '99 season. Next year, I was able to start playing football, and I was playing OLine, so I bought a Pace jersey.
Two great jerseys. My first was John Stallworth.
Orlando Pace was one who transcended the anonymity that usually comes with an OL. He came with a lot of hype coming out of college, IIRC he was in the top five for Heisman voting, and it was all warranted. Once in the NFL his pancake blocks were often a part of the weekly dialogue and highlights. He made headlines and was in our collective consciousness for all the right reasons.
I remember being confused with all the Daniel Jones hate. The Broncos were looking for a QB at the time so I'd been keenly invested in all the draft options. I wasn't 100% sold on DJ, but I'd have taken him ahead of Haskins. But on the day of the draft the Giants fans all seemed to be saying PLEASE NOT DANIEL JONES AT #6 and hyped this up to be the worst possible outcome. Yeah it was maybe a bit of a reach, but I'd argue that taking a RB at #2 in 2018 was more of a reach.
Picking a running back at #2 in 2018 was malpractice. I’m glad you brought that up. I was against that pick at the time as well. I kept explaining to my friends….”I like the player, not the pick!” When everyone was so hyped up about Barkley.
I mean in hindsight, Haskins might not have died in that accident had he been drafted by you guys and not drafted to Washington(right? Cant remember) and then ended up inPittsburgh
Putting the death aside, his first two season he was the worst quarterback in the league. We would have drafted the worst QB in the league.
Happy Passover to all who celebrate! Enjoy your Seder, your holiday, and time with your families!
If you get bored with the usual crackers this week, you can make 'hot matzo.'
Damn. That’s sounds really good. I’m going to try that! Thanks!
It's amazing an entire subreddit dedicated to data ALWAYS has terrible data. Whether it's misleading, badly presented or just flat out wrong.
It’s an iterative process. I think of it as a big think tank, even through half-done analyses we can discuss, think, learn and improve.
My son check to make sure we aren't in the room before he says "Hell yeah"....so I guess.
I think if my daughter said “hell yeah” first I would laugh, but try to hide my laughter, and then I would tell her that’s a naughty word and try not to say it
When people that never played the game say that special teams isn’t 1/3rd of the game this is the evidence of the contrary.
What about people who did play the game and say that special teams is not 1/3 of the game?
To say the Jags didn't have the best Defense In the league in 2017 is a disgrace
The measure being used is points, it’s not a judgement call.
Nice looking charts! Chart number 1 has a ton of information, easily digestible, and looks great.
The Bears need way more picks. #1 overall is nice but they should maximize their value and turn that pick into 32 7th round picks
And all of them should be Mr. Irrelevant. 32 Mr. Irrelevants.
I've never understood how it's practical to assign a numerical value to draft picks. Who says that pick 1 is x amount more valuable than pick 2? How would you even begin to quantify that? I really don't think you can.
If you have enough data, and you know the success rate of the pick (career length, starter, av, stats, starts, etc) and you have this for every pic or bin the pics into groups of five or something like that. There’s no reason why you can’t do this. If I know a certain type of $1 lottery ticket has an average of a 10% payback, and another type of lottery ticket has an average of a one percent payback, I can tell you that the value of the first one is 10 times the value of the second one. It’s the same concept.
[удалено]
Kordell Stewart
You left off “at a certain point.” A crucial modifier. If no one can explain to me how this conflict is won, how the tide can be turned without fantastical wishcasting, then we’re funding an endless meat grinder. Please, come back and tell me how that isn’t true. It’s essential to this entire conversation and you and everyone else won’t answer me other than to point to Congress maybe having super secret info that things are actually going great?
Your argument against anyone who wants to continue to fund Ukraine is that in order for their support to be logical, they have to explain how the conflict will be won. I’m a marketing analyst, I’m not a military strategist. By that logic, I can ask if you can explain to me how Russia doesn’t continue to roll over other countries if they easily capture Ukraine…and if you can’t explain that essential part of the conversation than what are you even doing here. I already told you what I think will happen, I don’t need to repeat it, because you didn’t accept it the first time.
The spending bill passed. $61B for Ukraine! This cost 1% of what we spent in all of 2023. This is pocket change for the US, and it’s going to help the fight against Russia in their attempt to weaken Western democracy, without putting one American boot on the ground, while also creating American jobs for the manufacturers of the supplies and weapons being provided. Why this no-brainer took so long to pass is beyond me, but at least we are here now. Mike Johnson will probably get ousted by the Russian sympathizer scum like Marjorie Taylor Green and her ilk, because of this. Kudos to Johnson for doing what’s right.
God, now if we can keep Biden in office for 4 more years
Russia would hate that.
It just takes the one Fox News juror to throw the trial.
Welp. Now that all 12 jurors have been selected, we have an update. One of them only gets their news from Truth Social and X. This trial is a wrap.
This is by far a better metric
You should do some OC. It’s hard to create content from nothing, that satisfies everyone. But it’s easy to review content and suggest tweaks and changes in the comment section. Give it a try, I’d love to see it.
My man. I'm not crapping on you. I just said that was a better metric.
I’ve been posting here for 6 years, believe me, I can take constructive criticism. This was a quick post in which, I got out in front of the criticism, by literally writing in my post that the metric is flawed. The “better” metrics take much more time, which I don’t have this week (some weeks I do) which is why I made the “flawed metric comment” in my post.